Tournament results
Saved report · retrieved September 14, 2026 · 20 commanders in picture · 2026-03–2026-08.
Win rates over time
Rates are entry-normalized and Bayesian-smoothed toward the entry-weighted EDHTop16 baseline. The prior strength is the median entry count for the displayed commanders in that period, so small samples move more toward the baseline. Tooltips show adjusted and raw rates, source, and sample size. Markers show releases and Commander banlist changes; timing alone does not show cause.
See release and banlist dates (0)
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Markers are placed at month level because these tournament figures are monthly aggregates. Banlist dates are curated from official announcements; set dates come from Scryfall. They provide context and do not establish that a change caused a performance shift.
Commander comparison
Baseline commanders + selected · ranked by Bayesian-adjusted win rate. The prior is the entry-weighted average (20.8%) with a strength of 1,006 entries; low-sample rates move more toward that baseline. This adjusts for sample size, not player skill.
| Commander | Adjusted win rate | Raw win rate | Reached top cut | Entries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 982 | ||||
| 3,674 | ||||
| 1,765 | ||||
| 2,498 | ||||
| 3,398 |
How to read these results
Games won: wins divided by recorded games, including draws. Reached the top cut: the share of tournament entries that advanced to the final elimination rounds. These are different measures.
The default comparison uses 20 baseline commanders for 2026-03-01 through 2026-08-31, all rounds, with no minimum event size. Selecting another commander adds its live results to these charts.
Updated overall win and top-cut rates come from EDHTop16 commander statistics. Updated starting-seat rates weight each monthly rate by that month’s shared seat-stat record count. Every seat rate states the shared coverage beside it; exact per-seat denominators are unavailable from the provider. Fewer than 100 total seat records is marked very small and fewer than 400 is marked limited. Missing values remain unavailable, not zero.
Seat-record draws and overall win rates may cover different records. Do not combine them to calculate losses or points. The Events & players view uses a separate, explicitly filtered event sample and provides the 5–1–0 points model for complete records.
The saved report preserves the original March–August 2026 values. Its figures are rounded; small differences should be interpreted cautiously.
Raw source tables and original report · advanced
Source: EDHTop16 · Tournament records, separate from the deck lab’s simulations.